By Dmitri Agapov 
Ahead of a summer of international football; traders must consider everything from stoppage time to offside delays and shifts in customer behaviour when preparing their trading strategies. In his latest Trader’s View piece, Dmitri Agapov previews the tournament and shares insights to help traders optimise pricing and maximise turnover on every game.
The European football championships are set to be the most bet on sporting event of the year. As with every major tournament, all 51 matches at the tournament present an exciting turnover opportunity for sportsbooks. With kick-off times staggered for every game except the final group games, punters will be eagerly watching every moment of the action live on TV.
But what’s new this summer, and what trends must traders watch out for when preparing for this year’s unmissable football event? From stoppage time to the effects of semi-automated offside technology (SAOT), read on for the view from our trading floor ahead of June 14’s opening game.
Want to learn more about betbuilder on international football tournaments?
Watch Genius Sports webinar, featuring senior traders from Codere and Fortuna Entertainment Group.
1. Expect reduced stoppage times
While the FIFA 2022 World Cup saw an average of 11 minutes and 30 seconds added stoppage time per game (4 minutes in the 1st half:, 7 minutes and 30 seconds in the 2nd half), UEFA has not adopted the same lengthy added time directives.
This was evident at last summer’s UEFA 2023 U21 Euros, where on average 7 minutes of stoppage time was added per game (2 minutes in the 1st half, 5 minutes in the 2nd half).
With every game live on TV and the biggest stars playing, in-play betting will be a key battleground this summer meaning that maximising market uptime, including during stoppage time, is crucial. 11 goals were scored in added time at Euro 2020, making the closing moments in both halves a notable turnover period.
By factoring in all the key in-game variables and staying mindful of substitutions and VAR delays, traders can confidently deliver near 100% uptime on every game, regardless of the referee. At Genius Sports, our football model utilises machine learning to instantly recalculate prices in real-time with no suspension after every goal, card and VAR check. Operators can offer a truly seamless betting experience in the final moments of every game.
2. Less VAR stoppages for offsides
Like it has in all of its competitions this season, UEFA will be debuting semi-automated offside technology at the Euros for the first time. Without the need for VAR officials to manually draw lines level with the nearest attacking and defensive players, UEFA claims offside decisions should take, on average, 25 seconds at Euro 2024.
This is a noticeable reduction on the 70 second average stoppages recorded for an offside during the 23/24 Premier League season.
This will be music to the ears of many traders, who will now get greater certainty and decreased delays. When combining fast data feeds with reliable trading models, traders can certainly expect to deliver near 100% in-play uptime and less bet delays this summer.
3. Don’t miss the penalty opportunity
Penalty shootout markets have become a highly-popular micro-betting category in many European territories, and we can expect them to be critical this summer. At Euro 2020, four games went the distance to a penalty shootout.
This betting format adds to the excitement in already high-tension moments as fans watch live on TV. The ten minutes between the end of extra time and the start of a shootout gives punters plenty of time to form new opinions and bet on markets like ‘1st Penalty Scored / Missed’ and ‘Shootout Winning Margin’.
In order to accurately model these markets, our traders adjust a penalty outcome parameters to ensure all takers are properly accounted for (across all derivative markets). With 15 knockout games, penalty shootout markets will provide a welcomed turnover boost.
4. Betbuilder – the ideal tournament product
According to our research, betbuilder bets averaged 35% margin at UEFA Euro 2020. 13% of betbuilders across our client base included 7 or more selections at the tournament, while betbuilders on average yield between two to three times bigger margins than single bets.
Now the go-to way for recreational punters to bet on major football, betbuilders allow users to build narratives around key players like Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane, as well as key moments, within a single game. With in-play vital, betbuilder enriches the viewing experience. To maximise the product, operators are increasingly turning to pre-built betbuilder markets to make placing a bet as seamless as ever.
Goal, corner and card markets are especially popular betbuilder options and the average betbuilder margin when a player market is included is 5% higherthan when a player selection is not.
Watch out for increased card expectancies this summer, with an average 4.59 bookings per game in the 2023/24 UEFA Champions League campaign a new competition high. The 4.52 recorded in the UEFA Europa League is the second highest ever.
To learn how to maximise betbuilder engagement at UEFA Euro 2024, watch our latest webinar– Euro 2024 and beyond: How to maximise betbuilder engagement in any market, with speakers from Codere and Fortuna Entertainment Group.
