By Nikita Sihhov 
In the latest edition of Trader’s View, Nikita Sihhov, Trading Manager at Genius Sports assesses how increased Premier League stoppage times and the crackdown on dissent and time-wasting has affected betting markets for sportsbook operators so far in the 2023/24 season.
Six weeks into the 2023/24 Premier League season and already we have seen numerous rule changes that have caused large media debate and an impact on results.
Increased second-half stoppage times and a stamping down on dissent and time-wasting are all-the-talk – but how have these changes affected betting markets?
More time, more late goals
The average total length of a Premier League match so far this season, according to our research, is 101 minutes and 25 seconds. This is an increase of around three minutes on previous seasons – but importantly – the ball has been in in play for an additional four-and-a-half minutes per game.
What does this mean in trading terms? For a start, more playing time means more goals and there has been just one goalless draws after 49 matches. Meanwhile, the average goals per game in 2023/24 stands at 3.26 – up from 2.85 over the course of the 2022/23 Premier League season.
But aside from higher goal totals and to a lesser degree, an increased likelihood of both teams scoring, operators have had to stay alert to late swings in games and somewhat unpredictable stoppage times to avoid late bets and minimise suspension times.
Tottenham’s late comeback against Sheffield United that saw them trailing in the 98th minute is the latest example of this, while Arsenal’s victory against Manchester United in 13 minutes added time following a disallowed Alejandro Garnacho goal in the 89th minute saw fluctuations in the win-draw-win markets in the closing moments.
On our trading floor, we can easily adjust goal expectancies and suspension triggers on a fixture-level to maintain sharp in-play pricing, factoring in any necessary price changes based on how much time the fourth official adds-on. This cuts any downtime risks and the chance of reactive shifts in odds.
So far this season, we’ve still been able to provide operators with 99% in-play Premier League uptime – including instant, modelled recalculations when a goal is scored and during added time.
Higher card expectancies
Since the start of the 2023/24 season, you will also have seen Premier League referees take a much stricter stance on time wasting and dissent. This comes from a new PGMOL (Professional Game Match Officials Limited) directive.
In terms of tangible impact, we’ve as you’d expect seen an increase in cautions across the opening six matchweeks. Prior to the recent international break, on average 46.5 bookings had been awarded per weekend in 2023/24, an increase on last season’s 37.5, while 11 players have been sent off already this season, over a third of last season’s entire total.
From a trading perspective, card expectancies have had to increase. This has shortened odds and increased lines across team markets. These markets are highly popular among recreational bettors for many of our operator clients but through our flexible trading software our traders can easily adjust card expectancy values before and during games to factor in any necessary price adjustments and maintain strong margins.
It’s worth noting that in previous seasons similar directives have been enforced in the early weeks to only then tail off. In 2020/21, a change to the handball rule sparked controversy before settling down. 125 penalties were awarded that season before dropping to 103 the season after. As of 28 Sept 2020, 20 penalties had been given in the Premier League – surpassing 2019/20’s season total.
Is double-figure stoppage time and a wave of late yellow cards for time-wasting the new normal? It remains to be seen. It’s a trend traders must watch – but with the ability to adjust expectancies and instantly factor it into pricing models, we’re enabling our clients to seamlessly update odds without any disruption.
